Originally posted on February 28, 2013 on Soccer Newsday
Will Napoli cut the lead held by Juventus, or will the defending champions place a strangle hold on the Scudetto race?
Il calcio è come una briscola al bar con il tuo migliore amico. Quando giochi, fai di tutto per fregarlo. Quando posi le carte, bevi con lui un bicchiere. (Football is like playing cards with your best friend. When you play, you do everything you can to beat him. But when you put the cards down, you have a drink together) – Osvaldo Bagnoli
In what is likely the biggest game of the current Serie A season, Week 27 brings us second place Napoli at home to face defending Serie A champions and current league leaders, Juventus. The Old Lady currently have a 6-point lead over their closest rival, with Napoli having been as little as 3 points behind only 4 matches ago, but they’ve stumbled in their last 3 games played.
Juventus is coming off a convincing win against relegation-threatened Siena, and have 3 wins, a loss and a tie in its last 5 games. Napoli, having just completed a scoreless draw with mid table Udinese, has only 2 wins in their last 5 games, including 3-straight draws. In their previous meeting in October at the Juventus Stadium, the two teams were evenly matched and scoreless until late in the game.
Juventus scored 2 goals in the final 10 minutes for the win; the first off a Martin Caceres header from an Andrea Pirlo corner right at the 80th minute mark; the second, a wonder goal by Paul Pogba just two minutes later, one hopping a shot by a beaten Morgan De Sanctis. At the time, it was Napoli’s first loss of the season.
As a point of interest, I watched this game on my laptop on an Alitalia flight from Toronto to Rome the day after the game. As “luck” would have it, a Napoli supporter was sitting across the aisle from me. He also hadn’t seen the game, but knew the score, so we chatted a bit about the game and how our teams were doing; all the while he was leaned over his chair to catch glimpses of the game. Even 10,000 meters in the air, calcio can bring two strangers, supporting rival clubs, together.
Back on topic. Napoli is led by current Serie A goal scoring leader Edinson Cavani, who has 18 goals thus far in the campaign. With rumours suggesting the Uruguayan may be leaving the team at the end of the year, the former Palermo striker will be keen to lead his team to their first scudetto win since the 1989-90 season, when they were also lead by another South American – Diego Maradona.
The diminutive Argentinian finished that season with 16 goals, and a record total 115 for the club. However, Cavani, who currently has 93 goals for the Partenopei in all competitions, has stated publically that he wants to better the record set by Maradona, who has even been attempting to attend this game. But due to his current tax issues with the Italian government, he may be prevented from doing so.
His famous words prior to the 1990 World Cup Semi Final versus Italy, that was played in Napoli, still linger with some Italians – just the mere mention of Maradona sends my father into a half fit. But the people of Napoli continue to love the man, with the possibility of his attendance at the game being talked about in the media like a Italian-translated Spanish telenovelle.
Giorgio Chellini, who started on the bench in Juve’s last game and came on as a late game substitute, will likely make his first start since coming back from a calf injury. The 28-year-old Italian international had been out of the lineup since mid-December, and is a welcome addition to the Juventus backline. Chellini told the Gazzetta dello Sport, “It was difficult watching without being able to help my teammates. I have recuperated and my calf is not bothering me.”
The Turin club already has the stingiest defence in the league, giving up a paltry 17 goals in 26 games, which includes 12 clean sheets. Chellini’s return will only help bolster the best defence on the peninsula. As his agent, Davide Lippi notes, “He is an important player for Juve and he identifies completely with the club.”
The Juventus attack, while not having a target man like Cavani, have spread out its goal-scoring throughout the team. Their 53 goals are second only to Roma’s 54. Fabio Quagliarella, Sebastian Giovinco, Alessandro Matri and Mirko Vucinic all have more than 5 goals on the forward line, while midfielders Claudio Marchisio, Andrea Pirlo, Artuo Vidal and youngster Pogba have each chipped in the goal scoring department, with almost 20 goals between them. Even Swiss wingback Stephan Lichsteiner has scored 4, including one versus Siena, to spread out the offence.
Napoli, with 46 tallies on the season, have 9 goals from Marek Hamsik, and, other than Cavani, have no other player with more than 4 goals. Napoli has only one win this season in games that neither Cavani or Hamsik score, to go along with two losses and five ties. In games that at least one of them scores, Napoli is 14-2-2. As for Cavani and Hamsik, so goes Napoli.
The ritorno match should likely prove to be another tight game. A Juventus win would almost lock up the championship, with a 9-point lead and only 11 games to play, so they will be very keen to ensure a win at the Stadio San Paolo. Napoli knows they need a win to cut Juve’s lead in half, and give them a chance to overtake the defending champions.
Will Cavani and Hamsik break through the Juventus defensive fortress? Or will the back line frustrate the two Neapolitan offensive leaders? Will the balanced Juventus attack be enough in the unfriendly arena, or will Napoli be able to defeat Juventus as they were able to in the 2012 Coppa Italia Final?
My prediction: a 2-1 Juventus win.
